Here is a copy of the latest Eve Politics update I did for the Goonwaffe forums a couple of days ago, while Stain and IT were (momentarily) at war. Note that it was for Goonwaffe consumption, and therefore may appear ever-so-slightly slanted.
Optimistic version: in the absence of a halfway-coherent goon threat that they can point at, first signs of splits in the southern bloc begin to show.
Pessimistic version: Goonwaffe has about the same ISK as one of Gamma’s newbies and slightly less chance of taking meaningful space.